taiwan tiger 台灣的老虎

Oops.

What a gaffe!  In a ceremony welcoming P.R.C. leader Hu Jintao to Washington, D.C., a major oops ensued when they announced the playing of the national anthem of the Republic of China.   That's Taiwan.  It's too bad they didn't' actually play the wrong anthem.  Let's hope this slip of the tongue is an indicator of the relative stance of the two "China"s in the eyes of Washington.

Spin, Spin, Spin

A while back I happened upon a TV program that followed a group of Chinese tourists on a boat somewhere near the Taiwanese island of Kinmen.  The Chinese, when asked about Taiwan, explained something to the fact that they know that the people of Taiwan are just dying to re-unify with the P.R.C., but were being kept from it by the Taiwan president Chen Shui-bien, who is trying to drag all Taiwanese kicking and screaming away from China and into independence.  Now, we know that this is complete B.S.--the spin spoon-fed to these tourists day after day from the P.R.C.'s government news agency Xinhua.  It is quite disturbing to see the effects of such long term brainwashing, though I don't know the level to which this pervades.  Some more worldly Chinese must know that that's complete hogwash, but I suspect that out in the country, it is hard to get that alternative view.

Reflecting on my recent trip to the U.S., I felt a little of that same disturbing feeling.  Someone close to me would occasionally pop out with some little tidbit of information about politics and media in the U.S. that was so shockingly dead wrong (things like events they think happened, but didn't), or an opinion that was so unnervingly ill-formed, when placed on a world stage of ideas. 

It was in my doctor's waiting office, too, that I noticed with appall that we were watching the Fox News Channel.  And in the airport, too.  Fox "News"?  I talked with a Canadian friend of mine here, who remarked:

"I couldn't believe it the first time I watched Fox News in the Phillippines.   I was like, whoa, can you even SAY that on a NEWS network?"

His point was that it was so clearly a heavily biased report masquerading as an unbiased "news" source.  And what chance do I have suggesting watching an alternative news source--hey, BBC is a pretty well-regarded news source, you know--when people already believe that what they are seeing is the unspun truth.  Despite how many right wing media sources tell you about the "liberal media" in order to make themselves sound centrist, Fox News is still way conservative on the world stage.  It is, in this guise, truly dangerous.  A form of message control.   While I was in the U.S., I got the impression that that was where the country is heading.  It is, after all, the most efficient form of government.

Technical Difficulties

Please bear with us as Taiwan undergoes some technical difficulties. We apologize for the inconvenience!

Well, I have some answers to my questions about who makes up the non-DPP vote. Thanks to FrankLin for the link to this great article on the base of Pan-Blue support from the Asia Times. Plus, it made me laugh. In the middle of this informative voting analysis comes this gem: "Taiwanese youths, being some of the world's least rebellious, tend to do what they are told."

But I will probably not be doing much more election analysis, as I am honestly worn down and disappointed at the whole process right now. From where I sit, and the information that I get, it seems like useless haggling. I've also had people comment to me what are such short sided opinions that I don't really feel the need to respond. If someone can't see why Taiwan in political turmoil is China's dream come true--turning a de facto independent country into a renegade province under political upheaval (perhaps requiring intervention of some sort)--I don't see much point in arguing the finer points.

I am also disappointed with some of the Pan-Blue party's supporters and legislators. Look, Chen said he will bypass normal procedure and do a recount as soon as the legislature can write it into law--a few days at most. Instead, while still in the committee, the Pan-Blue party legislators threw a fit and demanded an "immediate recount" and then a fight broke out. Their stupid wrangling for an "immediate" recount--which would have started approximately one week before the compromised procedure that both sides were working on--made it all but impossible. Hey, guys, you NEED to write it into law to do it, okay? Geez. Next November, hopefully people won't forget to vote their legislators out of office.

The impatience of people is driving me nuts. I mean, on the election night, some KMT supporters here in Kaohsiung tried to break into the Court Office with a van apparently to STEAL the election boxes for their own recount! Uh, and you were worried about corrupted ballots? Think, man, think! And for pete's sake, stop protesting for an immediate recount and go home already. Well, maybe it would be a better idea to protest the homes of those legislators that demanded not yet legal action since they're the ones that screwed it up. Be patient, people! It will all get done if everyone will just sit down.

I think I got worn out discussing elections in 2000 in the U.S. Bah, humbug.

Doing the math

Ok, so on Saturday I went to a polling station to see how it works, and to watch a count of the votes. Very interesting--I saw a lot of surprised faces at my presence, but all were friendly. The area around this polling place is very near an army base, and hence probably as heavily supportive of the KMT as is possible. This is the way that the voting went:

955 for Lien (KMT)
68 for Chen (DPP)
22 NO VOTE

The ballots have a approx. 1" x 3" box above both candidates, in which you place a stamp. Very simple, actually. After the voting is over, they open the boxes and hold each ballot up for all of us to see and announce "___, one vote" then hold up the next one, etc. Now, since I was there watching the whole time, I can tell you that the 22 NO VOTE ballots were ones that were either:
a) blank
b) had marked both candidates
c) had marked directly on the line between two large boxes
d) had marked somewhere on the ballot not in the boxes (there were not actually many of these in my polling station, maybe one or two)

Lien is charging the the 337,297 votes nationwide that were discarded as NO VOTES were tampered with. So let's do the math! If we take my polling station as an example:

Total "NO VOTE" ballots in my polling station:
22/1045 = 2.105%

Total countrywide:
337,297/13,251,719 = 2.545%

Well, that's pretty close, right? Is it within the realm of statistically insignificant difference? It seems like it, but there is also the lingering thought that the difference between 2.11% and 2.55% is .44% or 58,307 votes--enough to pull out a KMT victory. But being no statistical master, I'll let someone else determine the degree of significant difference between my polling station's numbers and the countrywide numbers.

Numbers aside, I think Lien's actions have been pretty deplorable. There was no reason to essentially incite his supportors to riot as they did here in Kaoshiung, attempting to ran a truck into the Court Building. And he's the one who calls Chen's actions rash.

China at it again?

We can add to the list of why many Taiwanese want nothing to do with China.

Today's assassination attempt on President Chen reeks of Chinese involvement. I suspect that the KMT had nothing to do with it--it would not serve them well to assassinate their opposition candidate. China, on the other hand, has a lot to gain by getting rid of him. Of course, it may have been a lone KMT supporter with a bad idea, but considering China's traditional Taiwanese pre-election scare tactics, I think it is most likely an organized attempt by China to disrupt Taiwan politics by assassinating someone that the Chinese government has always despised (to the point of rarely using Chen's name, but instead referring to him in vague terms something like "devil spawn" or the like).

So the question is: How will this affect Taiwanese voters? How would it affect you? Would you make a conciliatory gesture towards a government that (if this theory is correct) tries to assassinate your president?

Taiwan Elections 3/20

Things are reaching a fever pitch for the upcoming election on the 20th. Though I thought the U.S. was fairly tiring in terms of election rhetoric, it is easy to see how one can get even more overwhelmed here. In addition to the constant static of TV ads, there is a lot more flag waving and such things. Trucks drive around with huge banners on their sides and loudspeakers blaring the political messages--pretty much none of which I understand. But the whole atmosphere is, for me, adrenaline-inducing.

Election support seems to me more coalesced in tems of neighborhoods rather than individuals. For instance, my street, by all appearances, is COMPLETELY D.P.P., with hordes of green flags and banners hanging everywhere. But I live in what is most likely a D.P.P. stronghold--an old part (i.e. Taiwanese vs. Taiwanese-Chinese) of the city in the south of Taiwan. A short drive puts me in a geographically distinct neighborhood with blue flags. I believe it was a former army village, therefore inclined to support the K.M.T.

But here in Kaohsiung where D.P.P. support is especially strong, it feels misleading--I can't imagine that there is any support for the other side, because I just don't see it here. On Saturday, for instance, the KMT had planned a big "anti-corruption" rally for an area in the north of Kaohsiung. The DPP responded by staging their own rally nearby. For some reason, the KMT rally was altered from an anti-corruption rally to something else, but they supposedly still rallied. I really can't verify that, though, as for blocks and blocks, all I saw--to my great delight--were people carrying the green flags and banners of A-bien's DPP party. A huge parade flowed down Boai Road, and although I looked, I didn't see a single blue banner or "2" anywhere (the parties are numbered 1 and 2). Apparently, the KMT rally was completely drowned in a the sea of opposition support. Considering that my apartment and motorcycle both fly the DPP's green flag, I was more than happy with that.

The issue for me is polarized in terms of identity. While neither the KMT nor the DPP is officially pro-unification or pro-independence, they definitely characterize themselves as such, respectively. In the 6 months I have been here, I have yet to talk with anyone that feels differently from this: Taiwan is not China. We have no desire to reunify with a country that has no democracy, horrible infrastructure, a militantly oppressive government, is technologically 20 years behind us, and which trains its missiles on us. So what does that mean for elections? I don't know who supports a gradual course of re-unification. I know that they are out there, but I don't know where. Of course, you can support the KMT and not desire unification, but instead seek to maintain the status quo. I disagree with that line of logic, however, as nothing remains constant, and doing nothing is simply a way of deferring problems until a later time when they are more concretized in minds of the populace--seek the status quo and you will find that you have lost the options that were open to you earlier. Sure, patience is good, but inaction and the status quo is highly overrated.

On an emotional side, however, the issue is getting difficult. I love this place, and I shudder at the thought of an invasion by China. But that is exactly the fear that I know I must fight if my true feelings about the issue of Taiwan independence are to be realized. I also have been drawing back from my position a bit out of a concern that I am making it more of an issue than I have the right to. But I know what people here would say to me, because for some reason, it seems to be a phrase thrown casually in my direction so often that I am not sure what it really means anymore: "You think too much."

P.S. If this post doesn't get my site blocked in China (yes, the "world wide" web is not available to everyone), this just might do it, if it isn't already: